Macron to win, France to lose.

The Slog.

In the chaos to come, President Macron is going to struggle

A lot of late money has been placed, over the last 18 hours, on a surprise win by Marine Le Pen in today’s Presidential election. This is largely because there are signs of a bigger than usual abstention rate – 56% of French voters don’t want either candidate – at perhaps around 30%. I still think that, even on those maths, the data we now have on how the two candidates have each garnered votes from the 1st Round losers show conclusively that Macron is going to win comfortably. But that said, Le Pen’s share of those who do vote could be much higher than expected, as her supporters show far more certainty of actually turning up.

Whoever wins, however, this has been an election replete with disturbing signs on many levels.

Neither major Party got into the 2nd…

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